The Plywood Case Closes, Diesel Hits $5.65 — and Housing Falls Off a Cliff
The ITC votes unanimously to lock in plywood duty orders for at least five years, diesel runs nearly two dollars a gallon above last year, single-family housing starts hit their slowest pace since 2022, and cherry and ash are the species actually moving. September 1, 2026.
The short version
- The plywood case is over. The ITC voted unanimously affirmative on August 19 — duty orders lock in for at least five years, and domestic veneer mills just got real pricing room.
- Diesel is up nearly $2 a gallon from a year ago. Hauling farther for a better bid no longer pencils the way it did.
- Housing fell hard, lumber didn't. Single-family starts hit their slowest pace since 2022, but a shrinking mill base is holding prices up.
- Cherry and ash are firming. Oak isn't. Red and white oak are at multi-year lows in the Southeast.
- October 1 — Commerce owes the President its report on extending Section 232 duties to hardwood.
The Big Story: The Plywood Case Is Over, and Domestic Veneer Won
In July I wrote that one step remained in the hardwood plywood trade case — the International Trade Commission's injury vote, expected around early September. It came early. On August 19 the ITC issued a unanimous affirmative final determination, finding the U.S. hardwood and decorative plywood industry materially injured by dumped and subsidized imports from China, Indonesia and Vietnam. Chairman Brett Doyle and Commissioners Jason Kearns and Peter-Anthony Pappas all voted in the affirmative.
That was the last gate. Commerce now issues the antidumping and countervailing duty orders, and those orders stay in force for a minimum of five years, subject to annual administrative review. Here is what importers will actually pay:
| Country | Dumping (AD) | Subsidy (CVD) |
|---|---|---|
| China | 187.27% | 88.96% |
| Vietnam | 90.12% | 47.68% (Junma Phu Tho 165.39%) |
| Indonesia | 15.40–84.94% | 4.22–128.66% |
The case was brought in May 2025 by the Coalition for Fair Trade in Hardwood Plywood — Columbia Forest Products, Commonwealth Plywood, Manthei Wood Products, States Industries and Timber Products Co. The National Hardwood Lumber Association welcomed the ruling, with executive director Dallin Brooks saying the determination "confirms what our industry has been warning about" and calling for "a comprehensive, all-of-government response."
Here is why it lands on a log deck in Appalachia. Domestic plywood and veneer mills are the buyers of veneer-grade oak, maple and cherry logs, and they have just been handed five years of pricing room against imports that were undercutting them. This is the rare piece of trade news that points up for log sellers rather than down. If you are sorting a load this fall, the case for pulling veneer candidates out of the sawlog pile and pricing them separately is stronger than it has been in years. Not sure what qualifies? The free AI Log Grader flags veneer-potential logs from photos. flags veneer-potential logs from photos.
The ITC's full report publishes by September 28.
Diesel Went From Bad to Worse
July's update reported diesel at $5.13 a gallon and called it a spike. It kept going.
The Midwest is running $5.636 and the East Coast $5.498, with the Gulf Coast posting the sharpest weekly jump at 24.4 cents.
Trade contacts are describing the same thing from the ground. A North Carolina supplier told the August regional report that "freight's gone up a lot in the past 30 days." Alabama reports trucks themselves are scarce. An Arkansas supplier put it more bluntly:
“Everything's just down right now. Prices are down. Fuel is up, so hauling it is harder.”
— Arkansas hardwood supplier, August 2026
This changes advice I have given before. The standard counsel when your local mill lowballs you is to call three buyers and be willing to haul farther for a better bid. The first half still holds. The second half needs arithmetic now. Say you would haul an extra 50 miles each way — 100 miles round trip, and a loaded log truck runs somewhere around 5 to 6 miles per gallon, call it 18 gallons. At today's price that detour costs roughly $103 in fuel. A year ago the same detour cost about $67. The farther bid now has to beat the closer one by about $35 more than it used to just to break even, before anyone's time. Still call three buyers. Just run the fuel before you chase the distant one, and if you are paying a hauler, ask what their surcharge is doing before you agree a price. The log hauling directory lists carriers by state.
Housing Fell Off a Cliff. Lumber Didn't Follow.
July housing starts dropped 12.4% from June and 13.5% year over year. Single-family was worse.
Ordinarily that flattens lumber. It hasn't. Madison's benchmark price index sat at $521 on August 28, off from $530 the week before but well above the $426 low set at the start of the year. The reason is on the supply side rather than the demand side: sawmill production has contracted in both the United States and Canada, so a shrinking mill base is holding prices up while demand sags underneath. That is a softwood construction gauge rather than a hardwood price, but it is the weather system behind pallet and tie demand, and it is worth watching.
What's Actually Selling: Cherry and Ash Up, Oak Down
The August regional trade reports are worth reading side by side, because they disagree in an instructive way.
| Species | Region | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Cherry | Northeast | Demand back, prices up |
| Ash | Northeast | Firm on short supply |
| Red oak | Northeast | Top seller by volume |
| Pallet wood | Northeast | Picking up |
| Hard maple | Northeast | Soft |
| White oak | Southeast | Best seller, steady |
| Poplar | Southeast | Moving fine |
| Red & white oak | Southeast | Lowest in years |
| Rail ties | Southeast | Particularly weak |
In the Northeast, red oak remains the top seller by volume, but the movement is in two other species: cherry demand has come back and is pulling prices up with it, and ash is firm because supply is short. The overall direction is still down, though — as one supplier put it, "most everything is moving, but the prices are coming down."
The rail tie line matters more than it sounds: crossties have been one of the largest outlets for low-grade hardwood for the better part of two decades, and when tie buying slows, the bid on everything in that grade slows with it.
If you have cherry or ash sitting, this is a better moment for it than it has been in a while. If you have oak and you can afford to wait, waiting is defensible. And if you are getting a weak number on tie-and-pallet-grade logs, that is a market condition rather than a verdict on your wood — the market underneath that grade got smaller, and it is not your logs and not your buyer being cheap.
Still Waiting on the Mid-Year Price Reports
I check the publishers directly, and as of September 1 neither has moved. Ohio State's most recent Ohio Timber Price Report edition is still January 2026 — the July edition normally lands mid-year and is now two months overdue. University of Kentucky's delivered-log survey still stops at Q1 2026. Our price board runs on the most recent editions available and updates within days of a new one landing.
On the Calendar: October 1
The Section 232 wood tariffs currently cover softwood timber and lumber at 10%, kitchen cabinets and vanities at 50%, and upholstered wooden furniture at 30%. Hardwood timber and lumber were left out of the original action, but the proclamation requires the Commerce Secretary to deliver a report by October 1, 2026 assessing whether to extend duties to additional hardwoods and their derivative products. Four weeks out. Nothing to do about it today beyond having the date on your calendar.
What to Watch Through September
- The ITC's full plywood report, publishing by September 28, and whether domestic veneer mills translate five years of protection into higher veneer-log bids this fall.
- Diesel. If it holds above $5.50 through the fall cutting season, haul distance stops being a lever you can pull.
- The Section 232 hardwood report, due October 1.
- The overdue mid-year price reports from Ohio State and Kentucky, either of which would give the first solid read on where delivered prices actually sit.
- Cherry and ash. Two species moving up in a market where most things are moving down is worth paying attention to.
Sources: U.S. International Trade Commission final injury determination (August 19, 2026); U.S. Department of Commerce final AD/CVD determinations and Federal Register notices (July 2026); National Hardwood Lumber Association statement via trade press; U.S. Energy Information Administration weekly on-highway diesel prices (week of August 24, 2026); U.S. Census Bureau July 2026 housing starts; Madison's Lumber Reporter price index (August 28, 2026); Miller Wood Trade Publications Northeast and Southeast Business Trends (August 2026); Ohio State University Ohio Timber Price Report; University of Kentucky Forestry & Natural Resources delivered-log survey; Presidential Proclamation on Section 232 timber and lumber tariffs. Market items summarise third-party reporting and are not firm quotes. The fuel-cost example assumes 5–6 mpg loaded and is illustrative. AI Log Grader outputs are estimates, not appraisals.