The Mid-Year Prices Are In, Diesel Sets a Record — and Rates Go the Wrong Way
Kentucky's and Ohio's mid-year timber price reports finally land, diesel sets a record before easing, and the Fed raises rates as mortgages cross 7%. September 29, 2026 (updated October 1).
The short version
- The mid-year prices are in. Kentucky's report has white oak veneer's top price up to $6,500 in the east and walnut veneer's low end down. Ohio's has stumpage down 15–29% for most major species since last fall.
- Diesel set a record, then eased. The national average hit $6.529 the week of September 21, the highest in EIA’s records back to 1994, and slipped to $6.382 a week later. The Midwest, up 43 cents after a refinery outage near Chicago, is still 39 cents dearer than the East Coast.
- Rates went the wrong way. The Fed raised a quarter point on September 16, and the 30-year mortgage crossed 7%.
- White oak is two markets now. Veneer and lumber are holding. The bourbon side has cooled, and Kentucky's top stave price slipped $200 in the east.
- October 1 — Commerce's Section 232 report on hardwood imports was due to the President. As of October 1, no decision on hardwood duties had been announced.
The Big Story: The Mid-Year Price Reports Finally Land
Last month I wrote that neither of the two public price reports I lean on had moved. Both are out now. The Kentucky Division of Forestry posted its Q1–Q2 2026 delivered log price report on September 4, and Ohio State's July 2026 Ohio Timber Price Report is up as well. Together they are the first solid read on 2026 prices, and they don't say the same thing everywhere.
Kentucky, region by region. The only fair comparison is the same survey region and the same price column in both editions. Statewide ranges move whenever a region starts or stops reporting a column, so they can look like price changes that aren't. Here is what moved, same region to same region, between the report dated January 2026 and the one dated July 2026:
| Species & price | Region | Last survey → now |
|---|---|---|
| White oak veneer, top | 3 (northeast) | $4,050 → $6,500 |
| White oak veneer, top | 4 (east) | $6,000 → $6,500 |
| White oak stave bolts, top | 4 (east) | $3,133 → $2,933 |
| Walnut veneer, low end | 3 (northeast) | $4,500 → $3,250 |
| Walnut veneer, low end | 4 (east) | $3,800 → $3,125 |
| Walnut sawlog, top | 2 (central) | $2,500 → $4,000 |
| Walnut sawlog, top | 4 (east) | $3,725 → $2,875 |
| Hard maple sawlog, top | 1 (west) | $550 → $800 |
The pattern across species: top sawlog prices rose for 7 of 9 species in western Kentucky, but for only 5 of 12 in central Kentucky and 5 of 11 in the east. The west firmed. The east is mixed.
Ohio, fall to spring. Ohio State surveys the mills and buyers paying for timber, and its July report compares spring 2026 with fall 2025. Delivered log prices mostly slipped. Stumpage, the price for standing timber, fell harder:
| Species | Delivered sawlogs, all grades | Stumpage, statewide |
|---|---|---|
| Walnut | $2,317 → $1,929 (−17%) | $2,522 → $1,958 (−22%) |
| White oak | $1,150 → $1,133 (−1%) | $1,289 → $940 (−27%) |
| Red oak | $596 → $538 (−10%) | $551 → $467 (−15%) |
| Hard maple | $825 → $670 (−19%) | $661 → $468 (−29%) |
| Yellow poplar | $524 → $540 (+3%) | $414 → $305 (−27%) |
| Cherry | $585 → $536 (−8%) | $438 → $353 (−19%) |
Look at white oak in Ohio. Mills paid about the same for delivered logs in the spring as in the fall, down 1%, but the price for white oak on the stump fell 27%. The simplest reading is that the gap between the mill-gate price and the stump price is being eaten by what it costs to cut and haul, and diesel has not helped. If you are selling standing timber, get more than one bid, and ask each buyer what delivered price they are working back from.
If you have veneer-grade white oak, Kentucky's eastern regions just posted the strongest top veneer price of the two editions. Walnut runs the other way: the low end of the veneer range fell $1,250 in Region 3 and $675 in Region 4, so the difference between a veneer walnut and a near-miss matters more than it did. Not sure which side of that line a log sits on? The free AI Log Grader flags veneer-potential logs from photos, and the price guide carries the full Kentucky tables.
Diesel Set a Record, Then Eased — and the Midwest Is Still the Expensive Side
September's update had diesel at $5.65 and called it bad. It kept climbing through the month.
The national number rose 24.4 cents in the week of September 21, its third straight weekly rise, to $6.529: the highest weekly average in EIA’s records, which go back to 1994. The old record was $5.81, set in June 2022. The week of September 28 it eased 14.7 cents to $6.382. The bigger move was regional. EIA's Midwest region, which takes in Kentucky, Ohio, Indiana, Tennessee and Michigan, jumped 43 cents to $6.680 on September 21, then gave back 15 cents to $6.526. The East Coast region, covering West Virginia, Virginia, Pennsylvania and the Carolinas, is at $6.137. Two weeks earlier the Midwest was 9 cents dearer than the East Coast. Now it is 39 cents.
The Midwest jump followed a power outage that shut down ExxonMobil's refinery at Joliet, southwest of Chicago. Several of its units were back in service by Wednesday, September 23, and Midwest diesel eased the following week. Kentucky set its own record: AAA had the state’s diesel average at an all-time high of $6.383 on September 22. On September 29 it was $6.291, still $2.87 above a year ago. The Huntington–Ashland area went the other way, to $6.545, a penny under the record it set the day before.
A 100-mile round-trip detour at 5–6 mpg loaded is about 18 gallons. At $6.382 that is roughly $115 in fuel, against about $68 at last year's price, so a farther buyer now has to beat the closer one by about $47 more than a year ago just to cover the extra diesel, before anyone's time. Still call three buyers. Just run the fuel before you chase the far bid. The log hauling directory lists carriers by state.
Rates Went the Wrong Way
On September 16 the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate a quarter point, to 3.75–4%, on a 12–0 vote, saying inflation remains elevated. By October 1, Freddie Mac had the 30-year fixed mortgage at 7.28%, up from 7.03% a week earlier.
The August construction numbers show where that bites. Home completions, the point where floors, cabinets and trim go in, ran 27% below a year ago, a drop well outside the Census Bureau's margin of error. Single-family starts rose 7.6% on the month, but Census says that move is not statistically significant, so I would not lean on it. Much of the domestic demand for grade hardwood runs through finished homes and remodels, and higher rates do not help it heading into winter.
White Oak Is Two Markets Now
For two years the easy line on white oak was that bourbon would carry it. The whiskey side has cooled. Jim Beam paused distilling at its flagship Clermont, Kentucky plant for all of 2026, citing consumer demand. About 16 million barrels of bourbon are aging in storage, and Brown-Forman closed its Louisville cooperage last year. Kentucky's own numbers now show it: the top stave-bolt price in Region 4 slipped from $3,133 to $2,933.
The rest of the white oak market is holding up. The veneer top price rose in both eastern Kentucky regions, and in Miller Wood Trade's September round-up of Southeastern mills, a Tennessee mill put it plainly:
“Right now, the Red Oak, White Oak and Poplar are selling better than any of it is.”
— Tennessee mill, September 2026
If a stave buyer makes you an offer, get a sawlog or veneer bid on the same logs before you take it. A year ago the stave bid was usually the best number in the yard. It still may be, but it is no longer safe to assume. The white oak price and grade guide shows where each grade sits.
On the Calendar: October 1
Section 232 duties already cover softwood timber and lumber, kitchen cabinets and vanities, and upholstered wooden furniture. Hardwood timber and lumber were left out of the original action, but the proclamation had Commerce report back on hardwood imports by October 1, 2026, so the President could decide whether a duty is warranted. A report is not a tariff. Whatever he decides comes after it, and the proclamation sets a date for the report, not for a decision. As of October 1, no decision on hardwood had been announced.
It cuts both ways for log sellers. Duties on imported hardwood would make imported wood dearer and support domestic prices. But hardwood logs sold for export are the part most exposed if a decision draws a response from trading partners. If most of your wood goes to a mill within a day's haul, you are probably rooting for duties. If you sell into the container trade, less so.
Burning brush or slash after a cut? The daytime hours change on October 1. Kentucky (through December 15): no burning from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. within 150 feet of woods or brush. Ohio (October and November): no burning wood, brush or trash from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. outside town limits. West Virginia (through December 31): no burning from 7 a.m. to 5 p.m., and the fire has to be out by 7 a.m. West Virginia also requires a spark arrestor on sawmills and other spark-throwing machinery on land subject to fire, which is worth a look if you run a portable mill.
What to Watch Through October
- Any Section 232 action on hardwood after the October 1 report, and which way it cuts for domestic mills versus export buyers.
- Diesel every week from EIA (the next release is October 6), and whether the Midwest’s 39-cent premium over the East Coast unwinds as the Joliet refinery comes back.
- Housing starts for September, due from the Census Bureau on October 20.
- The Fed's next meeting, October 27–28, after a hike that already pushed mortgages past 7%.
- Stumpage bids. Ohio's report says the standing-timber price fell harder than the mill price. If the bids you are getting look light, that may be why, and more bids are the remedy.
Sources: Kentucky Division of Forestry Delivered Log Price Report, Q3–Q4 2025 (January 2026) and Q1–Q2 2026 (July 2026) editions, compared region by region; Ohio State University, Ohio Timber Price Report (July 31, 2026), saw log and stumpage tables; U.S. Energy Information Administration, Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update (released September 29, 2026; weeks of September 14, 21 and 28) and its weekly U.S. on-highway diesel history back to 1994; AAA Kentucky state and metro diesel averages and record highs (September 29, 2026); AdVantage News (September 17, 2026) on the ExxonMobil Joliet refinery outage; Quantum Commodity Intelligence (September 24, 2026) on the Joliet units’ return to service; Federal Reserve FOMC statement (September 16, 2026) and 2026 meeting calendar; Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (September 24 and October 1, 2026); U.S. Census Bureau and HUD, New Residential Construction for August 2026 (released September 17, 2026); Food Dive (December 22, 2025) on Jim Beam's 2026 Clermont pause, bourbon inventories and Brown-Forman's cooperage closure; Miller Wood Trade Publications, Southeast Business Trends (September 2026); Presidential Proclamation 10976 on Section 232 timber and lumber; Kentucky Division of Forestry, Ohio Revised Code 1503.18 and West Virginia Division of Forestry burning rules. Market items summarise third-party reporting and are not firm quotes. The fuel-cost example assumes 5–6 mpg loaded and is illustrative. AI Log Grader outputs are estimates, not appraisals.