Softwood Cools, Hardwood Holds, Exports Rewire
Mortgage rates ease to 6.36%, lumber futures dip below $600/MBF, Canadian SPF mills bleed margin under 35%+ duties, and the China log-import ban shifts the hardwood export map toward Vietnam. May 17, 2026.
The Big Story: Demand Stabilizes, Supply Realigns
The macro picture shifted noticeably in the first half of May. Mortgage rates eased to a 6.36% 30-year fixed as of May 14 — down 45 basis points year-over-year — giving builders a clearer runway. March housing starts (the most recent confirmed print) came in at 1.502M annualized, the strongest since December 2024. April's number lands May 21, and futures pricing suggests the market expects continuation, not reversal. The catch: lumber futures haven't followed the optimism. Front-month SPF is trading at $589.50/MBF, below the $600 line it held all spring. That's not a demand collapse — it's the supply side adjusting as Canadian mills rationalize capacity and U.S. inventory normalizes after winter restocking. For loggers and mills with consistent ready loads, the message is simple: buyers are still buying, but they're not panicking on price.
Softwood Lumber: Below $600, Canadian Mills Squeezed
Front-month lumber futures (May 2026 contract) settled around $589/MBF mid-month, down from the $605–$625 range that held through March and early April. The pullback isn't about demand — it's the supply chain catching up. On the Canadian side, the combined effective duty is now ~35% (preliminary CVD/ADD at 24.83% plus the 10% Section 232 added in October 2025). Combined with the 37.5% bump in Canada's industrial carbon tax (now $110/tonne) that hit January 1, BC Interior and Quebec mills are showing variable production costs of $580–$600/MBF — meaning a large slice of Canadian capacity is running at or below breakeven. Canadian lumber production dropped 6.9% in 2025 and further curtailments look likely. For Southern Yellow Pine producers and Appalachian softwood mills, this is medium-term tailwind: fewer Canadian imports = domestic mills gain pricing power as inventories thin in late summer.
Hardwood Log Prices — May 2026
| Species | Approx. Price / MBF | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Black Walnut (veneer) | ~$3,500 ↑ | ↑ Strong (35-yr stumpage highs) |
| White Oak (stave / veneer) | ~$575 ↑ | ↑ Tight (bourbon backlog continues) |
| Hard Maple | ~$425 | ➡ Steady |
| Soft Maple | ~$475 | ↑ Firm (flooring + Vietnam) |
| Cherry | ~$355 | ➡ Flat |
| Red Oak | ~$255 | ↘ Soft (China ban hits hardest) |
| Ash | Premium ↑ | ↑ Scarce (EAB restrictions) |
| Yellow Poplar | ~$235 | ➡ Volume play (export-driven) |
| Hickory | ~$285 | ↑ Tooling + charcoal demand |
Log prices are approximate Appalachian region averages for sawlog/veneer-grade material. Black Walnut figure reflects prime veneer-grade logs; sawlog grades trade lower. Always confirm current pricing with your mill or buyer. Ash supply remains constrained by EAB quarantine restrictions. Use our free AI Log Grader to spot-check the grade + $-value of a specific log before you negotiate.
The Export Story: China Out, Vietnam In
The single biggest structural shift in hardwood markets right now is the China log-import suspension that hit March 2025 (pest detection in U.S. shipments) — and is still in effect. While some flow has resumed, the bulk of U.S. hardwood log exports that previously went to China are now flowing to Vietnam, where Chinese-owned furniture manufacturers have invested heavily. White Oak, Walnut, Ash, Red Oak, and Yellow Poplar are the species moving in volume. For Appalachian operations sitting on Red Oak (down domestically), the export channel matters more than ever — Vietnam buyers pay fast and want consistent supply. Watch for the new countervailing duty rates on hardwood plywood from Vietnam (4.37–26.75%, finalized March 2026) — they're significant but well below the China rate (81.34%), so the Vietnam channel remains the path of least resistance.
Bourbon & White Oak: The Long Story Stays Long
Kentucky distillers filled 3.03M barrels in 2024, down from 3.2M in 2023 — bourbon demand softening modestly, but inventory is still being laid down at scale. The structural story hasn't changed: USDA forestry data continues to point to a long-term Quercus alba mature-inventory gap, and the cooperage industry is responding with capacity expansions (Independent Stave is building its 9th stave mill in Batesville, AR). What this means for sellers right now: stave-quality White Oak (12"+ diameter, straight, no red heart) still commands $1,200–$2,000+/MBF at the cooperage gate, and that floor isn't moving down. If you have stave-grade logs in eastern KY, southern OH, WV, or northern TN, you're sitting on the highest-leverage species in the region.
What's Moving Fast on JMLogMarket
White Oak Stave Logs — Premium Pricing
Cooperage buyers are still backlogged. Loads that arrive sorted, properly bucked, and butt-marked move within days of listing. List with photos + a recent end-grain shot.
Black Walnut Veneer — Always Wanted
Veneer buyers compete aggressively for clean, large-diameter walnut. Stumpage prices to landowners are at 35-year highs. If you've got a yard of veneer-grade walnut, you have leverage.
Soft Maple — Steady Vietnam Pull
Hard Maple has cooled with the slower flooring market, but Soft Maple (silver, red) is finding consistent buyers — partly domestic, partly export to Vietnam where it competes with imported tropical species.
Ash — Limited Supply, Premium Pricing
EAB quarantine restrictions keep Ash supply structurally constrained. Specialty buyers (baseball bats, tool handles) will pay if you can source it.
Hickory — Tooling + Charcoal Demand
Underrated species this season. Stronger pricing as charcoal producers (Royal Oak, Kingsford) and tool-handle manufacturers compete for the same supply.
What to Watch Through Late May / Early June
- April housing starts release (May 21) — a print above 1.45M annualized signals demand continuation and likely lifts softwood futures back toward $600. A print under 1.3M would suggest spring momentum is rolling over.
- Canadian mill closures — with BC and QC producers running below breakeven, watch for one or two announced curtailments by end of May. Each closure tightens domestic SPF supply for fall.
- Vietnam log-import volumes — the export pipeline is the swing factor for Red Oak, Poplar, and Ash. If Vietnam orders stay strong through summer, Red Oak's soft pricing has a floor.
- Bourbon barrel pricing — distillers are pushing back on cooperage prices. Watch for any softening in stave-log demand from the largest stave producers (Independent Stave, Speyside) — but the supply gap means even a 10% volume reduction barely dents the floor.
- Diesel + freight — diesel held in the $3.40–$3.60 range through April. Any move above $3.75 starts compressing margins on long-haul loads. Build it into your delivered pricing now, not after.
New: Try the Free AI Log Grader
If you're sitting on logs and want a sanity-check on grade + value before you call a mill or list publicly, we just launched the JMLogMarket AI Log Grader — upload a photo, get an instant USDA Forest Service grade (veneer / F1 / F2 / F3 / construction) plus a $-value estimate based on the prices in this update. Free, no signup. Built on NE-1 + AgH 678 grading rules — every output cites the specific rule that produced it.
Bottom line for May: Hardwood is the story. Softwood is in a digestion phase — demand stable, supply rationalizing, prices likely range-bound near $585–$615/MBF for the next 30 days. Hardwood prices are firming on the species with structural demand (White Oak, Walnut, Soft Maple, Ash, Hickory) and softening on species exposed to the lost China channel (Red Oak, Yellow Poplar). If you can sort and market by grade — not by "mixed hardwood" — you're leaving 15–30% on the table by not separating.
