Spring Demand Surprises Lift Prices

The Big Story: Housing Accelerates, Supply Stays Tight

U.S. housing starts accelerated in April, hitting 1.38M annualized (up from March's 1.29M) — the strongest pace since late 2023. This has lumber mills scrambling to fill order books. Softwood inventories remain thin due to Canadian tariffs (now at ~35%) and winter production losses. On the hardwood side, White Oak and Maple are seeing steady Appalachian mill demand, with export orders to Vietnam holding strong. Walnut is stabilizing after spring volatility. The real opportunity right now is consistent supply — mills paying premiums for logistics-solved loads.

Softwood Lumber: Holding Near Spring Highs

SPF 2x4 #2&Btr is holding around $505–$515/MBF as April wraps. The housing starts beat has mills optimistic about May ordering. Southern Yellow Pine remains firm as regional mills hold back incremental production to avoid dumping supply. Order files remain extended — mills aren't panicking on price, and loggers with ready loads are finding steady home. Futures for June settlement are pricing in $510–$535/MBF.

Hardwood Log Prices — Late April 2026

Log prices are approximate Appalachian region averages for sawlog/veneer-grade material. Black Walnut figure reflects prime veneer-grade logs; sawlog grades trade considerably lower. Always confirm current pricing with your mill or buyer. Ash supply remains constrained by EAB quarantine restrictions.

What's Moving Fast on JMLogMarket

White Oak — Any Grade, Quick Turnaround
Sawlogs and veneer both moving. Buyers appreciate loads already sorted and ready. Premium for logistics handled on your end.

Soft Maple — Dimensional Lumber
Hard Maple has cooled, but Soft Maple (silver, red) is finding consistent flooring and veneer demand.

Ash — Any Quantity
If you can source it, price it. EAB restrictions make Ash rare. Buyers who need it will pay.

Softwood Saw Logs — SPF, SYP
Order books are long. Mills want volume. No need to discount; steady is selling.

What to Watch Heading Into May

• Housing starts data (mid-month) — a positive surprise could spike softwood demand quickly given thin inventories
• Canadian mill curtailments — watch for further production cuts as 35%+ duties squeeze margins; fewer Canadian imports means domestic mills gain pricing power
• Export shifts — U.S. hardwood export volumes to Vietnam (~40% of total) are now the dominant channel. Buyers there pay fast. If you're a large-volume hardwood operation, this market deserves a look
• Truck & freight costs — tightened in early April as agricultural and construction cargo competed with lumber for rail cars and trucks. Factor this into your delivered pricing